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I have several people that I text when I’m on a trip living in a variety of different places, some guys I haven’t seen in years. It’s nice to have someone to talk to during the down times between flights and on layovers with crusty, cranky Captains. This particular day, I’m talking with a friend at a regional airline.
The world really is a weird place.
March 08, 2020
BREAKING NEWS: First COVID-19 case diagnosed in St Louis- "A father is in hot water today after attending a school function after his oldest daughter is officially diagnosed with the Coronavirus..."
I turn down the volume of my phone and text another friend. "How stupid could this man be?" I digitally think at him. Well, at least we know where she got it; a study abroad trip to Italy and via community spread (remember when that was a thing?). By this point, however, things in Seattle are deteriorating. As I read the news at breakfast in Richmond, catching up after two marathon days of flying, things were starting to look concerning. Then, it begins.
*Ding*
An email from the company. “Effective immediately, we will reducing our flights by 15% including a drawdown of flying to Europe of 20-25%.” Well, that’s not good.
It's a stretch of 9 days on the road with one day at home that week. With a busy work stretch like the one I'm on, the routine is pretty standard. At the end of the shutdown checklist, the guy who wasn’t flying breaks out his cell phone while the other guy says goodbye to the passengers. Then, if there is time, the other guy takes a ten minute break to catch up with the world before putting his head down to get ready for the next flight.
This stretch of 9 days, however, is unique and depressing. Each entry below represents news from between a flight or after waking up in the morning. I wish this happened over the course of a year, but this was, and I’m not exaggerating, over the course of a few days.
Text: Hey, did you see we are stopping new hire classes? Last one will be in April. Has the music stopped?
Text: Dude, United just announced a huge cutback in flying. What are you hearing on your end?
Text: American is saying they are stopping all transoceanic flying. Can you believe that?
News site: US to Ban All EU Citizens from entering the US, effective....
Company Email: Due to the EU Ban, we are cutting all flying from the EU (UK/Ireland Excluded) by 90%. We will still service Amsterdam for now on a reduced schedule
Email: Change of plans, instead of just 15%, we are cutting all flying by 40%. This will include the planned EU drawdown
Text: Buddy of mine says they have stopped interviews. Last Delta class now in March
Text: Buddy of mine says they have stopped interviews. Last Delta class now in March
News site: UK/Ireland now part of the flight ban.
Email: Uh....standby for more bad news? We aren't sure what is happening anymore
Text: Jesus Christ, what is happening?
Text: Did you see a regional airline has started to furlough? They aren’t calling it a furlough, though. They are just sending people home and not paying them.
Text: Bad news, Compass Airlines is losing all their airplanes and will be closing their doors.
Text: More bad news, your former regional is going to close their doors 1 April now.
Email: We are spending $50 Million every day and are getting almost no income.
Email: The plan now is to park 300 airplanes system-wide at airfields around the country. Latest projections indicate a requirement of 11,000 total pilots system-wide. We currently have 14,000 pilots on the seniority list.
That last one is hard to read and coincidentally happened as I'm walking to my gate for my commute home. The last 9 days were a whirlwind but nothing compared to reading that email. The previous day, my Captain and I were poolside in Cancun, drinking beer and chatting about how nice it was to be drinking beer poolside in Cancun. The news coming out of the US was depressing. The cab driver told us there was only one case in Cancun, so don’t worry....so we didn’t. We ran into a United crew at check-in and bought each other drinks by the pool that afternoon, commiserating over the bad news. Less than 24 hours later, I stared at the words, “3000 pilots over staffed.” I didn’t need to look at the seniority list to know that there weren’t 3000 pilots junior to me.
As I leave security after clearing customs back in the US, I couldn’t help but notice the quiet. “Eh, it’s still early, that’s why,” I think to myself as I walk quickly to the gate for my ride home to St Louis.
The B-concourse is always abuzz. A never-ending stream of humanity walks those halls from 7am until almost midnight, 7 days a week. On this Monday, though, it is different. The train from E to B is mostly empty. The escalator to the terminal level has one or two people waiting to reach the top. I walk into the center court and look both ways. For the first time that I can remember, from the center court, I could see the walls at both ends of the terminal. Normally, the mass of humanity blocked the view, but on this day, as people step aside to their gate, I could see each end, if just for a second.
The B-concourse is always abuzz. A never-ending stream of humanity walks those halls from 7am until almost midnight, 7 days a week. On this Monday, though, it is different. The train from E to B is mostly empty. The escalator to the terminal level has one or two people waiting to reach the top. I walk into the center court and look both ways. For the first time that I can remember, from the center court, I could see the walls at both ends of the terminal. Normally, the mass of humanity blocked the view, but on this day, as people step aside to their gate, I could see each end, if just for a second.
I walk up to the gate to St Louis and am immediately handed a boarding pass. The gate area is almost empty. “Where do you want to sit?” the gate agent asks. “Over 100 open seats on this flight.” For an airplane that holds 149, that’s a lot of open seats.
It wasn’t a week ago that I was shaking my head in disbelief about the dad who went to the school dance in St Louis when his daughter was the first confirmed case in the region. And now, for the first time, I am legitimately concerned for my own health. “I’ll take an open row in the back, if you have it,” I replied. “Just, anywhere not near anyone else.”
Landing in St Louis that morning is no change from the bad news parade from the previous week. Opening up a local news site, reporters are hearing that the City of St Louis and County are going to ban all dining-in at restaurants. Knowing that I likely wouldn’t be going out to eat in the near future and to show support for local restaurants , I swing by a local sandwich shop on the way home. "I’ll stop in to eat, go to the grocery store, and head home," I tell myself.
When I enter the Italian deli, I encounter something I'd never seen before. All the tables and chairs are gone. Tape on the floor marks where you should stand to order your sandwich and signs everywhere remind people not to touch anything. Without tables, I eat quietly in my car outside the deli.
When I enter the Italian deli, I encounter something I'd never seen before. All the tables and chairs are gone. Tape on the floor marks where you should stand to order your sandwich and signs everywhere remind people not to touch anything. Without tables, I eat quietly in my car outside the deli.
At the grocery store, the shelves are barren in the meat department. A few chicken breasts and a small selection of pork remain. I grab a few items and head for checkout. Walking in uniform, however, I can feel people moving out of my way.
When I step into the car after my errands, I notice another email from the company. “...and for the first time in our history, cancellations have exceeded bookings. We estimate that revenue in the 2nd Quarter will be $10 BILLION less than last year (profit 2Q 2019 was $1.9B). As a result, we will be parking 600 airplanes and trimming our schedule by 80%. We now estimate we have an excess of 7000 pilots for the months of April and May.” After ten minutes of quiet self-reflection, unsure if I will have a job next week, I finally start my car and drive slowly home. The nightmare that was the last 9 days had ended but no sign of morning in sight.
Anniversary Edit: Looking back on that day, the worst had yet to come. On the day I arrived from Cancun, 1.2 Million people traveled throughout the US compared to 2.4 Million the year prior. While I was sitting poolside in Cancun, cancellations skyrocketed and bookings ceased almost completely. The first day of the collapse was the morning I arrived back in Atlanta, March 16th. It was the last time over 1 Million passengers would travel the US National Airspace System until Thanksgiving Week, 8 months later.
I ended up flying two more trips after the one in this story. On March 30th, I spent 30 hours in abandoned downtown Cleveland. I originally bid the trip to catch opening weekend of the Cleveland Indians. Obviously, that didn't happen. The person at the front desk said we were the only two people in the hotel that day.
The last day of that trip, 154,000 people traveled in the US (7% of normal). I had one last trip to fly on April 8-9. Only 94k and 100k respectively traveled on those two days. Riding in the back of a Southwest flight from Minneapolis to St Louis, after those two trips, I was one of 3 people on the airplane. It would be the last time I stepped foot in an airport until the end of July.
On April 14th, the airline industry hit rock bottom. By the day's end, 87,534 people went through a TSA screening checkpoint, 4% of the previous year.
One year later, passenger numbers still struggle to break 1.2 Million, the same amount I saw when I returned from Cancun. In ATL, in the depths of the lowest point, half of the C-concourse, most of D, and all of E were closed. They literally boarded up part of the C-concourse. That area has since been converted to a mass vaccination site.
There is good news on the horizon, though. It was announced last week that all remaining pilots that were asked to stop working would be returned to work by October. The final number of pilots they sent into a holding pattern was around 1900. At one point, I was less than 1000 from the bottom of the list after all the cuts were made. Rumors are floating that hiring may resume this fall.
The same guy I texted at the beginning of the story, the one that was talking about their training pipeline cranking, sent me a text yesterday.
Him: We officially opened hiring today.
Me: They must know something is coming.
The world really is a weird place.
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