When Weather Surprises You

It's a chilly February morning in Toronto, Canada.  The crew and I are dropped off at the airport just after 4:30 in the morning at the US Departures area of Canada's busiest airport.  Before I went to bed, I took a peek at the most recent forecast in NYC.  I knew I wouldn't have a lot of time in the morning to look it over since the shuttle left shortly after 4:00.

On the shuttle ride over, no one speaks.  It's too early.  The hotel didn't have coffee out and I never dare to use the coffee makers in the room.  YouTube has ruined that convenience for me.  Usually the passenger area of the van is lit with the glow of cell phones as passengers and pilots alike browse Facebook to catch up on the goings on from previous night.  Not in Canada.  No one wants to spend the money on an international data plan.  So instead, we resort to staring out the window like it's 1999.

Once dropped off, we clear US Customs before going through security.  On this particular day, both are packed full of passengers.  "If security is an indication," I say to the flight attendant, "it looks like our flight will be full."  She grunts.  New York's JFK Airport is only an hour flight.  With limited drink and food options in the US Pre-Clearance partitioned area of the airport, most of her passengers will want a beverage and she will struggle to complete her service before we begin descending.

The First Officer and I go about completing our preflight duties.  Once all the systems are checked and aircraft maintenance status verified, I grab the 30 page dispatch release.  It's our permission slip to depart to NYC and it contains a lot of information like weather, navigational system outages and aircraft performance.  After a quick perusal, I begin reading it aloud to the First Officer.  "Okay, so this is flight 4101 Toronto to JFK on February 6th, 2016 in aircraft 611.  Looks like they filed us at Flight Level 300 and 1 hour enroute.  Looks like at our time of arrival, they are calling for 800 foot ceilings and visibility of 1 mile.  Not great but I've seen worse.  Right now, uh, it looks like they are reporting 2000 feet and 3 miles.  That's right on the forecast.  We have an alternate of Allentown and the weather there is beautiful all day.  It's a good alternate.  It'll be my leg this morning and you can fly us to Greensboro.  Any questions?"

The First Officer shakes his head.  I put the paperwork away, grab my cup of coffee and sip on it as I pull my phone out to connect to the airport WiFi.  I check my radar app to see if there is anything between us and New York.  It's February and while the chances are extremely low, it's still good to check.  As expected, nothing.  The stream of passengers coming from the terminal has dwindled and before I put my phone away for the flight, I check the weather in JFK one more time.  The airport is reporting 1500 foot ceilings now but that's nothing unexpected.

Toronto is quiet this morning as we taxi to the runway and depart to the southeast.  It's quiet in the cockpit as well.  I sip coffee and eat a granola bar for breakfast.  Once at cruise, it's time to break the silence.  "Man, no matter how many times you do it, that 3:30 wake up never gets easier."

"Especially since it's actually 2:30 at home," the first officer replies.  It's true.  Thankfully we have a short day today.  "Did you catch the Blues score?"

"Nah, I didn't have time to check..." I pause reaching for the volume knob of my backup radio. "...uh, time to check this..." I have a hard time completing a thought as I listen to the radio chatter.  It's quiet on the Center frequency but the backup frequency, the one where airlines can contact emergency services and their airline headquarters is busy.  "Sounds like Jet Blue is holding over Sea Isle?  That's the south arrival into JFK."

I pause to think for a minute.  The First Officer digs out his charts and studies them for a moment.  "Yea.  Sea Isle is the south arrival.  They could be going to Boston.  That's one of their big hubs.  I think I saw something last night that Boston was going to have snow this morning," the first officer surmises.

"Alright.  Send a message to dispatch.  Ask if they see any holding ahead.  I'll request a slower speed to save gas," I reply before talking over the radio. "Cleveland Center, Waterski 4101 requesting speed our discretion"

CLE CENTER: Waterski 4101, speed your discretion.

I slowly bring the power back so as to not alarm the passengers.  A sudden reduction of power to a nervous passenger could stir up some anxiety.  Most times, we do not fly at the most efficient airspeed and power setting.  We don't fly as fast as possible, but if we did fly at the most fuel efficient cruising power, it would take significantly longer to get places.  In this case, if airplanes are holding ahead, there is no rush to get there to burn fuel flying circles in the sky.

The First Officer, John, pulls up the weather for JFK on our computer.  "Jesus.  Does that say 1/8 mile visibility?"

I glance down at the computer and chuckle.  "Sure as shit does.  Well good morning to you too, JFK.  That changes the plan a little."  The reply to our inquiry to our headquarters returns.

DISPATCH: Yes.  Weather has dropped at JFK but RVR still better than 3000 feet.

RVR is the Runway Visual Range measured in feet.  Most large airports take measurements at 3 different locations when the weather is bad.  They use tower visibility, field visibility in miles and each landing and departing runway uses sensors placed in 3 locations to get visibility in feet.  On a day like today, tower visibility will be worthless since it is most likely in the clouds.  Most approaches require a half mile of field visibility to land or 1800 feet RVR for the landing runway. Yes, I am aware that 1/2 mile and 1800 RVR are not the same number.  That's a topic for another day.
"Well, that's some good news.  We are good down to 1800 RVR.  It'll be close, but we should still be able to get in, assuming of course we don't get stuck in a never-ending hold."  Almost as if they had been listening to our conversation, air traffic control calls us.

CLE CENTER: Waterski 4101, contact New York Center and expect holding ahead at YODAA.

John acknowledges the frequency change and copies the holding information with New York Center.  I dig through my manuals to verify the "Long Range Cruise" power setting and speed.  We are going to be really slow but we are trying to buy time and fuel.  I look over at John and start preparing to hold.  "Okay, the FMS is set up for the hold.  We are back to long range cruise.  Call the flight attendant and let her know what's going on then make an announcement to the folks.  Let them know we are going to be holding due to weather in JFK and will update them as we get more information.  I'm going to start calculating our bug-out fuel.  Send a message to dispatch and tell them we are holding over YODAA and fuel of 5.5.  Once you're done, I'll have you calculate the bug out and we'll compare numbers."

The bug out fuel is essentially the fuel on the airplane where we are no longer legal to continue to the destination as planned.  On a weather day like today, we are required to have enough fuel to fly to our destination, then fly to our alternate and then fly after that for 45 minutes.  When you hear a pilot talking about not having enough gas, it's never about running out completely.  It's always about not having the legal quantity to continue.  Don't worry.

For those who are really interested, this is how the calculation works.  If you aren't, skip to the next paragraph.  We first have to figure out how much fuel we will burn between YODAA at the airport.  That information is found in that dispatch release we received before we left Toronto.  Let's assume that's 1000 lbs.  We then have to add the fuel required to fly to our alternate of Allentown.  That's 850 lbs.  Finally, we add on the 1800 lbs of reserve fuel(that extra 45 minutes from earlier).  That's 3650 lbs.  Sometimes, depending on the weather, I'll throw on 200 lbs (the amount to shoot an extra approach) for the wife and kids.  So, when we reach 3850 lbs, in the hold, we have to let ATC know that we need to go to our alternate.  Simple!

"Okay, I have 3850 lbs.  What did you get?"  I ask the First Officer.  He agrees.  Just then, ATC comes over the radio.

NY CENTER:  Waterski 4101, cancel holding instructions.  Proceed direct Kingston, descend and maintain FL180 and give me your best forward speed and best rate down.  You are number 1 for the field.  Contact New York Approach now.

"Well, that changes everything.  Let's do this!" I exclaim as I program the FMS for the new plan.  We get vectored around for the approach.  I do the math one more time, this time taking out the time to fly to our destination since we are there.  "Okay,  you keep an eye on the gas.  When it reaches 2900, let me know and we'll proceed directly to Allentown," I tell the First Officer.

NY Approach: Waterski 4101, Runway 31 Left RVR 2000, 2000, 3000, you are 5 miles from the final approach fix, cleared ILS 31 Left.  Contact JFK Tower.

The First Officer acknowledges and I couple the autopilot to follow the instrument landing system.  It captures the glide slope and I pull the power back to maintain our final approach airspeed of 131 knots.  "1000 feet above," he announces indicating that we are only 1000 feet above the airport.

I look over at the chart to make sure I have correctly memorized the missed approach procedure.  Since Manhattan is only 5 miles from the end of runway 31L, we have to do a climbing left turn away from the city in the opposite direction of the approach.  Not complicated, but important.

The ILS will get us to 200 feet above and about a half a mile from the start of the runway.  The First Officer calls out "200 above."  This indicates that we are 400 feet above the airport and that he's now no longer looking at the instruments but looking outside for any indication of the airport.  The next thing I expect to hear from him is that he has the airport or runway lead-in lights in sight.  At 300 feet and 2/3 of a mile from the airport, I call out "100 above."  We only have a few seconds left before we have to go around.  I peak out my window.  At this point we should at least be able to see the ground straight down.  Through the breaks in the clouds, I can see water from the bay below.  This is going to be close if we get in at all, I think to myself preparing to initiate the Go Around.

As we reach 200 feet above the airport, I peak outside and see nothing but white.  "Go around," I announce as i disengage the autopilot, put the power all the way forward until it can't go any further, and pull the nose up to initiate a climb.  The engines spool up and I feel the aircraft pushing me into the back of my seat. "Set max thrust, flaps 9," I command as we briskly accelerate to 200 knots and rocket back into the sky banking the airplane away from Manhattan and its 2000 foot tall buildings.  As we start to climb away from the ground, the first officer announces that we are, in fact climbing by saying "Positive rate", and I command him to raise the gear.  All of this happen within seconds of initiating the go-around.

Once the airplane is configured back for climb and cruise, evaluate our fuel situation and weather.  "Okay, we have 3200 lbs of gas.  That gives us 300 lbs to shoot another approach which technically we can do.  Did you see anything at all outside?" I ask John.

"No man.  Nothing.  I don't even think we started getting ground contact until we were within 100 feet," he replies.

"Alright, tell that to approach.  Ask if 31R is any better," I tell him.  He parrots back when he told me and they respond quickly.

NY Approach:  Negative Waterski.  Runway 31R RVR is 1600, 2000, 2000.  Runway 31L RVR is 1800, 1800, 2000.  Say intentions.

The ball is back in our court.  I start to think aloud.  They are vectoring us back toward the approach but I only have a minute before we have to commit or divert.  "Okay, so, we have 250 lbs left.  Weather is continuing to deteriorate.  We are legal for the approach but if we didn't see it at 2000 and 3000 RVR, I doubt we are going to see it this time."  I pause.  "No.  We aren't going to do this.  Tell them we want to divert to Allentown."

Air Traffic Control continues to climb us up and away from NYC as we begin our short trip to Allentown.  A few minutes after requesting the diversion, they give us our route to Allentown.  Once the flight computer is programmed for the new route I tell John what to do next.  This is, after all, his first ever diversion.  "Okay, tell the flight attendant and I'll send a message to dispatch."

"What do we tell the passengers?" He asks.

"That's a low priority right now.  Once we are set up for Allentown, if we have time, we will let them know what's going on."  It takes about 10 minutes to find the approach plates, get the weather, calculate the landing data and brief the approach.  As we level off and start cruising to Allentown, it's only then that I realize that my back is covered in sweat.  So much for being cold, I think to myself.  "Okay, it looks to be visual conditions in Allentown.  Are you all set up for the approach?" I ask and he acknowledges.  "Alright, after I brief the approach, get on the PA and tell them that due to weather in NY, we are having to divert to Allentown."

It takes about 15 minutes for us to land in Allentown.  We park at a gate and open the jet bridge.  A gate agent pops her head in the door looking stressed. "We've got 4 more flights inbound, two from LGA and 2 from JFK.  If you need us, come up to the gate," she says as she runs back out to the ramp.

That's not a big deal, I think.  It's going to take a little time for our dispatch to make us a new release and tell operations the fuel we need.  I pull out my cell phone and call our company's headquarters to figure out what to do.  "Hey, what's the plan for us?  The forecast was wrong."

"Well, we are going to put you on hold for another hour.  There's nothing we can do with the weather that low.  They are reporting 800 RVR right now in JFK," dispatch tells me.

"Alright, can you call Customs and Border Patrol and let them know we didn't make JFK and ask if we can let them get off in Allentown?"  I inquire.  Dispatch acknowledges and says they'll call me back when they get the approval.

The sun is up in Allentown as 5 other airplanes join us at the small airport not more than a few hours from NYC.  We spent 4 hours there that morning before the weather eventually cleared up at JFK.  Once inside the terminal, several passengers threatened a police officer and were nearly arrested.  It was chaos.  Understandably, they were upset.  What they didn't know, however, was that most of our NYC operation was grounded for the morning.  Airplanes were stranded all over the northeast in places like Syracuse, Allentown, Harrisburg and Philadelphia.

We don't want to divert.  We don't want passengers to miss their flights or get home late.  We feel bad but under no circumstance will we put lives in danger to do so.  I'm sorry that you were meeting an Ambassador or had a meeting with a client.  Weather happens and sometimes it surprises even the best weather guessers.  All you can do is roll with it.  So please, sit back, relax, and enjoy your flight.